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Forecasting Gold Rates in Diwali 2023: Festive Season Insights

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October 18, 2023


What’s Inside

With the Diwali season fast approaching, many families across the country eagerly await the festival season. This is also the time when many people may consider investing in gold, which holds both economic and cultural significance for Indians. If you’re planning to buy the yellow metal this year, you need to track the gold rates during Diwali 2023. 

It’s also crucial to understand the factors that drive gold rates during Diwali and keep an eye on expert options. This will help you understand the potential trajectory of Diwali gold prices in the coming days.

The Recent History of Gold Price in India

Over the past year, the gold rates in India have witnessed considerable fluctuations. A significant drop of 12% from January to September 2023 took the price of gold to ₹41,500 per 10 grams — marking the lowest gold price since the lows experienced in April 2020. 

However, the Israel-Hamas conflict has introduced an added layer of complexity in the price of gold in India. It positions gold as a safe-haven asset and could reverse the declining trend. Coupled with previous price patterns, these national and international drivers set the backdrop against which Diwali 2023's gold rates may unfold.

Current Dynamics in the Gold Market

Recent hawkish comments from the US Federal Reserve, coupled with a drop in US bond yields, have put upward pressure on gold prices internationally. In August alone, the key London spot market saw gold prices retracting from a five-month low and rising by more than 3%. These global developments could affect Diwali gold rates. 

Within India, the weakening of the Indian Rupee has been another pivotal factor, with the currency having depreciated about 15% in the last two years. This has further affected domestic gold prices as a weaker rupee makes gold imports more costly, pushing up gold prices during Diwali in the local market.

Diwali-Linked Demand for Gold in India

Gold's cultural significance in India becomes particularly evident during festive and wedding seasons. As we approach the October to December quarter in 2023, the peak period for weddings coincides with major festivals like Diwali and Dussehra. Historically, these months have been a substantial driver for gold demand, directly influencing the precious metal’s prices. 

However, when gold prices soared to all-time highs earlier, it typically deterred consumers due to reduced affordability and led to a slump in physical gold demand. This dynamic interplay between festive demand, affordability and price perception is also expected to play a crucial role in shaping gold prices for Diwali 2023.

Technical Analysis and Predictions for Diwali 2023

International and domestic gold price movements can be better understood through technical analysis. On the international front, the gold market appears to be in a congestion phase. A breakout on either side of the current range may provide fresh short-term price movements that you will have to keep an eye out for. 

Within the Indian gold market, a similar congestion pattern prevails. Predictions from analysts suggest that gold prices could oscillate between ₹62,500 to ₹54,000 per ten grams in the foreseeable future. As the festival of light approaches, you may have to watch for any shifts or trends within these defined ranges for gold rates during Diwali 2023.

Summing Up

This sums up the key insights you need to be aware of about potential gold rates during Diwali 2023. If you are planning to purchase gold either as bullion or jewellery, make sure you keep these details in mind. Additionally, while these insights may help you understand how Diwali gold rates may fluctuate, they cannot accurately predict gold prices. You need to perform your own research, account for any potential uncertainties and invest accordingly. 

Beyond the Festival Season: Money Goals for the Future

While it may be considered auspicious to purchase gold during Diwali, you also need to plan for your future beyond the festival season. A long-term investment plan or goal-based savings can help you achieve various milestones over the coming years. What’s more, Fi Money, custom-built for digital natives, makes saving fun!

It lets you set up fun FIT Rules, like 'Set aside ₹50 each time I order food online'. When the rule gets activated, Fi automatically saves your cash into Smart Deposits. You can also assign a 'Goal Amount' you aspire to achieve: New sneakers, Tokyo vacay, etc. Powered by the licensed Federal Bank, Fi Money has an arsenal of features proving you don't have to be frugal to save up. 

Frequently Asked Questions

1. How accurate are the predictions for gold rates during Diwali 2023?

Predictions for the gold rate during Diwali 2023 are typically based on data and historical trends. However, they are not always 100% accurate.

2. What factors are considered when forecasting gold rates for Diwali 2023?

Forecasting Diwali gold rates involves accounting for various factors like local supply and demand, global economic conditions and national and international geopolitical events.

3. Can I use these insights to make investment decisions?

Yes, insights about the Diwali gold price trends can be used to guide your investment decisions. However, ensure that you always pair these insights with personal research.

4. How can I stay updated on the latest gold rate predictions for Diwali 2023?

To stay updated on Diwali gold price predictions, you can follow financial news and expert analyses.

5. Are there any risks associated with relying on gold rate forecasts?

Yes, relying solely on gold rate forecasts can be risky because the market could be unpredictable. It's essential to approach Diwali gold rate predictions with caution.

6. Will the festival season have a significant impact on gold prices in 2023?

Yes. The festival season typically increases the demand for gold. This could potentially affect the gold rate during Diwali 2023.

7. How can I interpret the insights provided in the blog for my specific situation?

You can interpret the insights offered by aligning them with your financial goals and risk tolerance. If you still have some doubts, you can consult a financial advisor to tailor these Diwali gold price insights to your specific needs.

8. How can I protect my investments if there are unexpected fluctuations in gold rates?

To protect your investments from gold rate fluctuations, it’s a good idea to diversify your portfolio and consider setting stop-loss orders for active trades.


Investment and securities are subject to market risks. Please read all the related documents carefully before investing. The contents of this article are for informational purposes only, and not to be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell securities, mutual funds, or any other financial products.
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