Investing Wisely Amid Stock Market Swings During US Elections

As the US presidential election approaches, many investors contemplate one big question: How will the stock markets react? Historically, the American economy has experienced significant shifts with changes in the political climate. The changing electoral dynamics can be nerve-wracking for investors — especially those stationed outside the US who are considering investing in US stocks. Hence, most investors stay attuned to the US election outcome while calculating its potential ramifications on capital markets.

Why markets become volatile during the Election Season?

The US stock market often mirrors the nation’s anticipation and uncertainty during the ballot run. Both before and after Election Day, investor sentiment can fluctuate, driving market volatility. During this period, investors tend to react to anticipated policy changes, potential tax reforms, or regulatory shifts, all of which might impact the profitability of specific industries or corporations. As a result, the market’s short-term trends tend to fluctuate in sync with electoral updates and projections, which makes it crucial for investors to take a cautious yet strategic approach to safeguard their interests.

Why is the stock market expected to do well?

Right now, the economic condition looks good for an extended bull market going into the next presidential administration. According to the New York Times report, the Federal Reserve  started to cut the interest rates. Unemployment is still relatively low at 4.1% and inflation has finally cooled to near the Fed's target of 2%. 
The U.S. stock market has shown a remarkable ability to grow over the long term, despite periodic political and economic disruptions. This resilience is largely due to fundamental economic growth drivers such as innovation, productivity, and corporate earnings, which tend to continue on an upward trajectory even with shifts in government policy.

Election-Induced Ambiguity: To invest or not to invest?

Volatility, though common during elections, doesn’t necessarily mean investors should step back from investments. Instead, a time of heightened uncertainty can provide unique investment opportunities. A key consideration for investors would be the policy direction of the winning candidate and understanding what the parties represent. 
In its September 2024 article, Forbes mentions a statistical test conducted to understand the relationship between political control and market performance due to election outcomes. “Results of the analysis contradict conventional wisdom that a Republican or Democratic “sweep” of the presidency and Congress is most likely to cause market disruption,” states the report. 

Timing the Market vs Long-term Investment: What works best?

It is wise to do close market research and monitor the election campaigns before investing in US stocks for a stronger portfolio. History has even shown that, while stock markets may react dramatically to electoral outcomes in the short term, they tend to stabilise over time.
During the 2024 US election, keeping a watchful eye on indices like the S&P 500 and NASDAQ is beneficial, as these often indicate broader market sentiment. In addition, as per the study conducted by US Bank investment strategists, economic and inflation trends, rather than election outcomes, consistently impact market returns.
Hence, deciding between timing the market and long-term investing is vital if you are interested in capitalising on this period. Market timing involves making short-term investments based on the perceived impact of election outcomes, which can lead to gains if correctly anticipated. Long-term investing, on the other hand, offers a steadier approach. 

Which sectors to watch in the 2024 Election Season?

The effects of election cycles are typically uneven across sectors. Many industries (mentioned below) have historically shown resilience to election-induced market shifts. 
Technology: A leading force in innovation, technology stocks can be less affected by changes in government leadership since demand for tech innovation remains high. Cloud computing, AI, and software development companies often perform well regardless of political outcomes.
Healthcare: With increased focus on healthcare, particularly in a post-COVID era, this sector is seen as relatively stable. However, it is essential to watch for policy changes that could directly impact pharma companies or hospital networks.
Renewable Energy: As the world transitions to sustainable energy, companies in the renewable sector are projected to grow, offering a buffer during political uncertainty phases.
Consumer Goods: Consumer goods stocks are known for their resilience to market downturns, making them a safer option for those seeking stability amid election volatility.

Top US Stocks to Consider for Investing in 2024

Here are some of the NYSE (New York Stock Exchange) and NASDAQ (National Association of Securities Dealers Automatic Quotation) listed companies suggested by the investment experts at Fi that you may explore. These companies represent some of the most innovative and stable investments globally. 

• Meta - Meta Platforms, Inc. is a leading technology company that develops products enabling global connectivity and communication. Known for its popular platforms like Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp, Meta also invests in virtual and augmented reality through its Reality Labs segment.
• Tesla—Tesla is a leading innovator in the electric vehicle and renewable energy sectors, known for its cutting-edge technology and sustainable solutions. Tesla management highlighted that they are preparing to launch new, more affordable cars in the first half of 2025. These cars aim to cut the total cost of ownership, making electric vehicles (EVs) affordable to more consumers.
• Uber Technologies - A global technology company that connects consumers with independent providers of ride services, meal preparation, grocery, and other delivery services, Uber is a leader in the ride-sharing and delivery service industries.
• General Motors (GM) Company - GM Motors designs, builds, and sells a wide range of vehicles, including trucks, crossovers, and cars, under well-known brand names such as Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, and GMC. GM also offers automotive financing and insurance services and is actively involved in developing autonomous vehicle technology.
• Philip Morris International - A leader in the tobacco industry, pivoting significantly in recent years toward smoke-free products. Philip Morris's updated guidance for 2024 pointed to an improved adjusted EPS range of $6.55 to $6.67. This adjustment mirrors the company's confidence in sustaining its growth trajectory and its ability to navigate the complexities of global markets and regulatory environments.
• Nvidia (NVDA) - A significant force in graphics processing and AI technology, Nvidia is at the forefront of innovations driving future industries.

• Microsoft (MSFT) - From cloud computing to AI-driven innovations, Microsoft remains one of the most dominant players in the tech world. 

  Conclusion

  While the upcoming US presidential election may prompt some investors to hold back, it’s also an opportunity to explore the US stock market strategically. A clear, informed approach can help you mitigate risks and identify investment opportunities that offer potential long-term gains without getting swayed by the uncertainty of the moment. Remember, preparation, patience, and a diversified portfolio are the key to successfully navigating this period.