GUIDESUS STOCKS
The US stock market finished on a high note last week, with the S&P 500 hitting 6,000 for the first time since February. This may point to a cautious recovery in investor confidence fueled by the broad appreciation of energy and communication services. However, with the current US market conditions, significant economic numbers, and ongoing uncertainty surrounding US Federal policy, investors are left wondering whether the rally is destined for failure (or simply a bear market).
From 9-13 June 2025, trade talks, inflation expectations, and possible monetary policy changes will be the primary areas of interest. The ongoing digest of the May jobs report across North America, and the tumultuous relationship between Donald Trump and Elon Musk, will also take centre stage.
Here’s a snapshot of what drove US market momentum in the first week of June 2025:
Market analysts are sending mixed signals. Canadian economic think tank TD Economics noted that “nonfarm payrolls remained resilient last month despite heightened trade policy uncertainty,” suggesting underlying economic momentum. But, others remain sceptical of the rally’s durability.
Willie Delwiche, founder at Hi Mount Research warned, “We have seen instances in the past where we’ve had big drawdowns, then huge rallies that failed just shy of new highs, that then cascade lower months later.” Still, Delwiche acknowledged, “Breaking out to new highs would be the best sign of strength in the market. New highs are the most bullish thing that stocks can do.”
Delwiche also highlighted the unusual current environment, stating, “The market is hostage to headlines right now, unlike any point I can remember in my career.” On a more positive note, he added, “More international markets are making new highs than there are single industry groups of domestic companies trading at peak levels. That’s encouraging.”
Here are the top market-moving events and economic releases that could set the tone this week:
June 10 (Tuesday) – US & China diplomatic meeting in London
June 12 (Thursday) – US Consumer Price Index data release
June 13 (Friday) – US jobless claims data
June 10 (Tuesday) – GameStop
June 11 (Wednesday) – Oracle
June 12 (Thursday) – Adobe
This week's high-stakes mix of corporate earnings, geopolitical events, and macro data could significantly affect the direction of the market.
Technical analysts are still wary, predicting a potential retest of recent lows in the event that headline risk resurfaces, even though positive jobs data has increased optimism. Midweek inflation data will be a crucial Fed-watcher event, and sector sentiment will be tested by the results of big tech and retail companies.
As usual, investors should remain flexible while also being prepared for volatility. Follow-through and conviction, not just headlines, will determine whether this is the beginning of a long-term bull run or a brief rebound.
This blog is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please consult with a registered financial advisor for any investment-related decisions.
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